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Prediction markets news and analysis from LC Insight: 13 stories, newest first.
Polymarket has no POLY token. So why is it still pursuing a POLY trademark?
Polymarket's help center says it has announced no airdrop and no token launch, and that all rewards are paid in pUSD. Meanwhile a February application to trademark "POLY" for crypto token services is still alive, with a reply filed on November 2.
Polymarket adds 15-minute gold and silver bets. One early window traded just $100
Polymarket has added 15-minute and one-hour Up or Down markets on gold and silver, settled by Chainlink price streams. The format began with crypto, where Chainlink says it has passed $9 billion in volume, but the metal markets start almost empty.
Kalshi prices a Democratic sweep at a record 70%. Did a fake pollster move the odds?
Two days before the November 3 vote, Kalshi's market priced Democrats winning both chambers at 70%, up more than 9 points in a month. Ten days earlier, Kalshi had to explain why a fabricated pollster barely moved its election markets.
Prediction markets explained: how Kalshi and Polymarket work, and the real risks
A prediction market lets people trade contracts that pay $1 if an event happens and $0 if it does not, so prices read like odds. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange; most Polymarket markets settle on chain through the UMA oracle.
SEC vs. CFTC: who regulates crypto in the US, and where the line now falls
The SEC oversees crypto that counts as a security, and the CFTC oversees commodities like bitcoin and ether plus derivatives on them. Since March 2026, the two agencies share an interpretation that says most crypto assets are not securities.
Polymarket repaid $3.9 million after a vendor's script turned on its users. What broke?
A hijacked performance-monitoring script on polymarket.com used logged-in sessions to sell positions and pull funds. Polymarket's postmortem says 95% of affected wallets are now fully refunded, and it paid $1.2 million more for losses during its trading pause.
Polymarket repays $3.9 million after a hacked vendor script hits it for the second time
On October 29, a compromised outside script on polymarket.com used logged-in sessions to sell positions and drain 726 wallets. Polymarket paused trading, repaid 689 of them in full within a day, and is covering pause losses too. It was the second vendor script attack in four months.
PREDICT sale done, trading on hold: Binance postpones Predict.fun's launch, no new date
The BNB Chain prediction market sold PREDICT on Binance Wallet on October 29, then Binance Alpha and spot trading were postponed hours before launch. The airdrop claim is frozen too, and nobody has said why.
Coinbase made $719 million in Q3. Almost all of it came from its own crypto pile
Coinbase swung from a $359 million loss to a $719 million profit, but $715 million of that was a paper gain on crypto it holds. Retail spot trading volume fell 59% in a year, while prediction markets passed $200 million a year in revenue.
Kalshi raises $1 billion at a $40 billion valuation. Can it outrun the states?
The prediction market says it now runs at more than $1 trillion in annualized volume and wants to sell perps, indices and compute markets. Two days earlier, its federal regulator sued Utah to stop the state from shutting such markets down.
Polymarket US quits sports contracts in Michigan. Open bets must close by November 25
After losing two bids in federal court, Polymarket's US arm agreed to stop selling new sports event contracts to Michigan residents. It is the fourth big platform, after Coinbase, Robinhood and Kalshi, that the state has halted.
Washington sues Utah: the CFTC's 10th state fight over prediction markets
The US derivatives regulator went to court to stop Utah from shutting down federally registered prediction markets under state law. It is already fighting nine other states, and the outcome decides whether these markets are one national product or 50 local ones.
Kalshi signed the NBA and S&P Dow Jones, then capped under-21 deposits at $2,500 a month
In five days, Kalshi became the NBA's preferred prediction market, agreed to build event-contract indexes with S&P Dow Jones Indices, launched sector data contracts and put a monthly deposit cap on its youngest traders. Then it raised $1 billion.