Polymarket adds 15-minute gold and silver bets. One early window traded just $100
Polymarket has added 15-minute and one-hour Up or Down markets on gold and silver, settled by Chainlink price streams. The format began with crypto, where Chainlink says it has passed $9 billion in volume, but the metal markets start almost empty.
Key points
- Polymarket's finance page lists rolling 15-minute and one-hour Up or Down markets on gold and silver as of November 2, 2026.
- Each market settles on a Chainlink price stream, XAU/USD for gold and XAG/USD for silver. It resolves Up if the closing price is equal to or higher than the opening price.
- The format started with crypto: Chainlink-powered 15-minute markets went live in September 2025, and Chainlink put their volume above $9 billion by August 2026.
How the new markets work
Traders on Polymarket, the crypto prediction market, can now bet on whether gold or silver will be up or down in the next 15 minutes. As of November 2, 2026, Polymarket's finance page listed a rolling grid of "Gold Up or Down" and "Silver Up or Down" markets in 15-minute windows, plus one-hour versions, with a featured silver market tagged "NEW."
The rules are simple. Each market has a "price to beat," the metal's price at the start of the window. If the price at the end is equal to or higher, the market resolves Up. If it is lower, it resolves Down. A new window opens every 15 minutes, overnight included, and the market's rules state the price source in advance.
The listings show how dense the grid is. For the early hours of November 3 alone, the finance page carried separate gold and silver windows every 15 minutes from midnight to 1:00 a.m. ET, plus one-hour markets for midnight to 1:00 a.m. and 1:00 a.m. to 2:00 a.m. ET. It is the same rolling setup Polymarket already uses for bitcoin, ether and other coins, now applied to two metals that trade outside crypto.
Chainlink sets the price
Both metals settle on Chainlink data. The gold market for the 1:00 a.m. to 1:15 a.m. ET window on November 2 named Chainlink's XAU/USD stream as its resolution source. The matching silver market used Chainlink's XAG/USD stream. Chainlink is an oracle network, a service that brings outside data such as prices onto blockchains so smart contracts can use it.
The early numbers show how quiet the new markets still are. That gold window opened with a price to beat of $3,913.32, resolved Up and showed $100 in trading volume. The silver window started at $50.29, resolved Down and showed no volume at all. Polymarket's page warns that its live price display may lag by a few seconds.
The crypto markets that came first
Short up or down markets are not new on Polymarket. They started with crypto. On September 12, 2025, Chainlink announced that Polymarket had partnered with it to launch 15-minute markets, starting with asset prices. In February 2026, 5-minute crypto markets followed, also secured by Chainlink Data Streams, its low-latency price feed product.
Chainlink's first-quarter 2026 review listed the 5- and 15-minute markets for BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, DOGE, HYPE and BNB, and called them Polymarket's fastest-growing markets, with more than $5 billion in volume and over 3,000 algorithmic traders and market makers signed up. In August 2026, Chainlink said those markets had passed $9 billion in volume as it switched them to time-weighted average prices, which smooth out single-moment spikes. For how prediction markets work in general, see our Polymarket and Kalshi explainer.
Volume of Chainlink-powered Polymarket markets, as reported by Chainlink
US$ billion (more than)
Source: Chainlink Q1 2026 review and Chainlink on X (August 7, 2026). Figures are cumulative and given as minimums.
How Polymarket laid the pipes
Polymarket's developer changelog shows the pipes being laid in the weeks before the metals launch. On September 29, its PolyBolt real-time price feed added a channel with 60-second Chainlink time-weighted prices for the euro and yen against the dollar, and began naming the vendor behind each price (Pyth, Massive or Chainlink). On October 2, Chainlink became the default source for every crypto symbol. On October 21, seven forex pairs served by Pyth joined the equity price channel, with a note that Chainlink's around-the-clock equity products read "open" outside exchange hours.
In other words, the price plumbing for non-crypto assets was already in place. Gold and silver now have their own short markets on top of it.
Timeline
Chainlink announces Polymarket partnership for 15-minute markets
5-minute crypto markets go live, also on Chainlink Data Streams
Chainlink's Q1 review cites $5B+ volume in these markets
Chainlink switches the markets to TWAP data streams, cites $9B+ volume
Polymarket adds Chainlink forex and equity prices to its PolyBolt feed
15-minute and one-hour gold and silver markets listed on Polymarket
LC Insight analysis
This section is our reading of the facts above, not a statement of fact.
- We think the metals launch matters less for gold traders than for what it signals: Polymarket could list almost any asset with a Chainlink stream, and its changelog already carries forex and equity prices.
- The first windows we checked had almost no money in them. Short crypto markets took months to reach billions in volume, so thin early books are normal, but a price set by $0 to $100 of trading says little about what traders expect.
- The weak point is the oracle. Every one of these markets lives or dies on a single Chainlink reading at the start and end of a 15-minute window, which puts heavy weight on that feed's accuracy and uptime.
What's next
- Trading volume on gold and silver windows over the next weeks
- Whether forex or stock Up or Down markets follow, using the feeds already in PolyBolt
- Any official volume update from Chainlink or Polymarket that includes metals
Disclaimer. This article is based on public information and the sources listed below as of the update time shown. It is for information only and is not investment, legal or tax advice. Figures may change as companies and authorities publish new data.
Sources
- Polymarket, Finance markets page (November 2, 2026)
- Polymarket, Gold Up or Down, November 2, 1:00 a.m. to 1:15 a.m. ET
- Polymarket, Silver Up or Down, November 2, 1:00 a.m. to 1:15 a.m. ET
- Polymarket Documentation, Predictions changelog
- Chainlink, Quarterly Review: Q1 2026 (April 28, 2026)
- Chainlink on X, Polymarket 15-minute markets (September 12, 2025)
- Chainlink on X, TWAP Data Streams for Polymarket (August 7, 2026)
